Broker Check
The Weather Doesn’t Always Follow the Forecast

The Weather Doesn’t Always Follow the Forecast

October 06, 2026

A few years ago, my wife and I decided it would be fun to load up our six kids and go camping in July.

We borrowed my in-laws’ trailer. It slept six, so we tossed a tent in for the two oldest kids and figured we were set.

And for the first couple of days, we were.

The sun was shining. The kids were exploring the woods. We spent a couple of days at the beach. There was sand in places I didn’t know sand could get, nobody was sleeping particularly well, and our 11-month-old was basically contained in a playpen because she wasn’t walking yet and we had no idea where she might crawl off to.

In other words, it was a successful McComas family vacation.

Then some friends suggested a hike.

Four-mile loop. Clear trail. Sunshine.

Why not?

We headed out with everybody in a great mood.

And then we heard thunder.

Within minutes, the sky opened up.

This wasn’t a little summer sprinkle. Rain was pouring down, the trail was starting to wash away, and suddenly I’m looking around at twin five-year-olds, a three-year-old who was absolutely convinced his legs no longer worked, and a baby who had to be carried.

And we weren't prepared for any of it.

The weather app hadn't shown rain. There was no storm in the forecast. When we left camp, we had every reason to believe we were heading out for a nice four-mile hike in the sunshine.

But here's the thing: The weather didn't care what the forecast said.

Retirement can work the same way.

You can run the projections. You can estimate your expenses. You can assume a certain rate of return. You can decide when you'll take Social Security and how much you'll need every month.

And all of that planning matters.

But life doesn't always follow the forecast.

Markets fall. Tax laws change. Inflation shows up. A spouse gets sick. Healthcare expenses increase. An adult child needs help. You lose a spouse earlier than expected. Or maybe you simply live a whole lot longer than you planned for.

That's why I don't believe a retirement plan should only answer the question, "Does this work if everything goes according to plan?"

I want to know: What happens when it doesn't?

That's one of the reasons I'm such a believer in organizing retirement assets with purpose.

With the Bucket Plan, we're thinking about what you may need now, what you'll likely need soon, and what can remain invested for later.

The goal isn't to predict every storm.

We can't.

The goal is to build a retirement strategy that gives you options when the forecast changes.

Because eventually, every retirement is going to hear a little thunder.

And when it does, I'd much rather have a plan for getting everyone back to camp than stand in the pouring rain wondering what we're supposed to do next.